OR.... Oil is responding to this...

One of my passions is world politics (it use to include US politics as well, but honestly I find very little of interest in our two party system, obviously the platforms differ, but the message is the same, "MONEY" and I am saddened by the competent and talented people who could serve our country's best interests, but will never see the political light of day because of "K" Street). In any case, it was just last night in the "Week Ahead" post I mentioned the Syrian/Turkish trouble. I don't pretend to be a news service and I don't put stories on the site unless I feel they have some significance to the market either immediately or as background information for something that I feel will develop and effect the markets.

From last night,

"While Turkey is a NATO member and enjoys certain benefits should they request them, Syria doesn't stand alone as it has very valuable bases and strategic importance to both China and Russia, the 3 countries are planning the largest scale war game EVER."


"Oil will be interesting, after seeing the FX open, I expected oil futures to look worse based on correlations alone, but based on the fundamentals of MENA, it's hard to argue against oil seeing support from market uncertainty in two situations that could be quite a bit bigger than how they first appear."


There are many rules and "mottos" of the market that have stood the test of time such as "Trade with the trend", in this case perhaps more importantly, "It's time to buy when the missiles fly".


This isn't a reference to the market liking war, although crude did very well during the Iraq war (#2); it's a reference to the other saying, "The market hates uncertainty" and when war starts, it removes the uncertainty of the build up to war. 


I would file this under, "Uncertainty"...


Turkey claims Syria has fired on a second Turkish jet, also says the act won't go unpunished and invokes NATO articles 4 and 5. Turkey also says Syria fired on a Turkish search and rescue plane.


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The timing seems about right for the intraday move in oil.