Monday, June 18, 2012

Market Update

Basically today looks like a technical move that probably triggered some short covering, there isn't much showing accumulation/positive divergences except off the open, everything since seems to be based on the SPX above major resistance in short squeeze territory, although the intraday trade doesn't look like there was any real strong short squeeze in play. There's damage on the intraday charts, but it seems to be halted at about 5 mins, which isn't a whole lot of damage thus far.

As suspected, the leading negative in ES is getting worse.


 The first volume surge in the SPY was apparently some short covering, the second looks a lot more like bearish churning.

 A closer view of the churning as the candlestick (1 min) rejects higher prices and forms resistance intraday on large volume.

 DIA 1 min is leading negative intraday, however the trend is more interesting and why I'm willing to be patient and let the trade come to me rather than chasing it.

 The DIA 1 min has been in excellent confirmation the last week or so, today is a clear change in character, mind you on the least influential timeframe, but it is there and divergences always have to start somewhere and that is right here.

 DIA 3 min relative negative divergence, there really isn't that much damage done so far with only a relative neg. on a 3 min chart.

 IWM 1 min positive on the open, note though in the yellow box where we'd expect to see a positive divergence for a move higher intraday, there is nothing, currently leading negative at new lows on the day.

 The IWM 3 min in line from last week and 2 relative negative divergences, one at the a.m. highs today and the other is worse at the afternoon highs, the green arrow intraday is 3C in line with price, so again, no positive divergence where it would be expected to be found, suggesting momentum simply came from the cross above SPX major resistance as we have expected to see.

 The IWM 5 min chart is still in line so the damage done intraday today is contained at the 3 min chart, which means there wasn't serious damage being done, it just looks like the market is going to pullback or consolidate.

 QQQ 1 min is one of the worst looking with a deep negative 1 min divergence at the afternoon highs, it looks like pretty good selling in to strength on an intraday basis

 The 2 min positive on the open, negative at the a.m. highs, negative at the afternoon highs and no positive divergence in the yellow area where it should be seen.

 There's a slight negative on the QQQ 5 min, but not horrible.

 SPY 1 min positive on the open, no positive divergence at the mid-day lull and a relative negative at the afternoon highs.

 SPY 2 min, same features, same lack of a positive divergence mid day.

The 5 min chart is in line so it seems damage is contained to the intraday shorter charts.

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