High Yield Corp Credit made a late day run the last hour to bring it just above unchanged at +0.03%, still a tiny bit lower than I'd like to see for the short squeeze scenario 3C has been pointing to.
The Euro's move lower was disappointing, although some of the downside momentum faded during the afternoon session and there was some increased positive 3C momentum in the 1-5 min charts. Likewise, the $USD saw some increased negative 3C momentum in the same timeframes, so perhaps the Euro is looking for some footing in the area.
The $AUD went negative vs the SPX at 2:25 today as the SPX hit intraday highs, from that negative divergence the SPX lost some ground from that point. For purposes of the short squeeze scenario, the $AUD is not presenting a problem and is in confirmation of the SPX trend.
Yields which are an excellent leading indicator, gapped down on the open and remained fairly flat most of the day, however the damage done in yields really started on the 14th with lower highs, this was worse on the 15th. The ONLY silver lining is they seem to be holding some support from June 8/11th area, otherwise they are negatively divergent vs the SPX with regard to the trend that has developed that 3C seems to indicate will end with a short squeeze. It should be noted however, we have seen some large moves in yields very quickly so I'm not counting them out of the game, not with the 3C chart the way they have been.
High Yield Credit added some more upside on the day which was good to see, although HY credit still is in a negative divergence with the SPX. The contradiction between HY credit and HY Corp. Credit is curious. As mentioned earlier today HY Corp. credit may be moving within its longer term channel or there may be some distortions as JPM tries to unwind their whale trade.
End of day sector rotation saw Financials leak off in to the close, Industrials came in to rotation or continued moving in, Discretionary also saw some added momentum, Tech lost a little ground and the safe haven industries saw some flow in to them (Healthcare, Staples and Utilities).
The EUR/USD...
I expect some wild volatility this week, I'm hoping though that we can use it to enter some positions.
Interestingly, Treasuries saw 3C positive divergences today from the 1-5 min timeframe. Except for the 2:25 high in the market, Treasuries moved with the market for much of the day which is not typical. The fact Treasuries were seeing positive underlying action also fits well with a pullback in the market; as of now it doesn't look to be anything major (except credit is a little worse than would be expected).
The market averages themselves were slightly negative as I posted today, most damage was intraday and halted at the 5 min chart so we didn't see massive distribution, but enough that a pullback in the market is certainly a possibility. There was a little better tone in the intraday timeframes toward the close in the SPY and DIA, however the QQQ/IWM didn't see the same, but overall the tone on the day seemed like there was selling in to price strength above the SPX's major resistance area, which would make some sense as nervous shorts would provide the bid.
We have a couple contradicting signals in the near term/intraday which is not surprising as the market tries to figure out how to discount the Greek elections which were not as simple an affair as one might have expected with a New Democracy win, however nothing very dramatic. As of now, it seems a pullback remains the path of highest probabilities.
I'll update some other information shortly.
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