Thursday, July 5, 2012

BPZ Update

BPZ was last updated Tuesday, the update shows the original trade idea as well as subsequent updates. The overall theme of the update is that BPZ looks good longer term (one of a handful of stocks that may have a future beyond a sub-intermediate move up. However it also looked like a pullback near term was set and I said to watch for a target at the $2.50-$2.55 level, we are currently at $2.52 as BPZ has pulled back today as the charts suggested Tuesday.

While we are close to the target area, I'm not seeing convincing evidence yet that BPZ is a buy at this point. I want to see strong positive divergences in to a pullback and buy on price weakness/3C strength. I suppose this is not too strange considering how highly correlated the markets have been and if we are expecting more of a pullback in the market, why should BPZ buck that trend?

In any case, here's how BPZ is shaping up, it's not all indifferent.
 Another daily chart with a bearish descending triangle/bear trap...

 On a 15 min chart BPZ has pulled back to a near term trend line, this is probably a little too obvious as traders would look to pick up BPZ long on a pullback to the trendline which they would view as support, that alone probably is enough to argue for a deeper pullback.

 The 4 hour longer term perspective looks quite bullish, therefore I think it is wise to be patient with BPZ and look for that strong entry signal (strategically BPZ looks great, the tactical entry signal is now the focus).

 The 1 min chart showing the probability Tuesday of a near term pullback, however we are also watching this timeframe for positive divergences in to the pullback as an entry signal on the long side, I don't see anything there that is convincing... yet.

The 5 min chart looks like the pullback should be deeper than it is currently.

I would put this one on your radar if it meets your criteria, I think this will offer a nice move up and a nice low risk/high probability entry. Patience PAYS.

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