GLD Update

We've had good success trading GLD from the short side in a series of short term put trades (I believe 3 or 4 consecutive winners). Today, Tuesday's new GLD put position in the options model portfolio (August $160 puts) which was based on this analysis from just before on Tuesday so far is doing pretty well, but GLD trades have required that you be nimble.

Up +22.64% in about 2 hours

Remember that gold has the most to gain from QE or specifically $USD debasement and as such rallies when the market sentiment is leaning toward more QE.

Here are the updated charts for GLD this morning...

 The 60 min chart has been negative since the sudden accumulation on May 31st that sent GLD soaring, there was distribution in to that move higher. This 60 min chart' position is why I have wanted to keep short term GLD trades on the short side for the time being.

 On the daily chart we predicted at least a an Intermediate downtrend and perhaps a Primary, we have already seen the Intermediate downtrend and are close to a Primary trend, however since GLD first went negative in to the August highs last year, there has been improvement on the daily chart, suggesting the Intermediate downtrend may be all we gat and a new trend in GLD may emerge to the upside over the coming months, of course we are not there yet, but it should be watched for continued strength building in.

 The 1 min chart suggested GLD pulls back this week and thus far that chart today is pretty much in line with price, a bit on the negative side.

 The 2 min chart also shows the negative divergence for a pullback and today is about in line.

 The 5 min chart is higher than I'd like to see in a leading positive position which I believe is a carry over, thus for the current position we need to watch the 1, 2 and 3 min charts to see if they grow more negative and migrate to the 5 min chart and break up some of this positive divergence, otherwise GLD may have to be closed sooner than I'd like.

The 15 min chart is still in a leading negative position, there's quite a bit more work to go before we can say that a GLD primary uptrend is high probability.