Market Update-Looking for the trend

The one thing I try to constantly remind people, "Price is deceptive". If you bought in pre-market today based on the surge in ES last night, look at what would have happened to you on the open.

A day ago the gap was faded the exact opposite way, but it didn't make a major move until 9:30 right on the open, this isn't coincidence. Morning trade seems to be the most deceptive of all.

As for the SPY (most of the averages have at least a similar theme if not the same signals)...

 The intraday 1 min is going negative as the SPX chops back and forth before the pros come in around 3-3:30 in to the close, note there was no positive divergence at the lows on the fastest of timeframes, it all seemed to be a reaction based on Schumer's comments to Bernie.

 This is what I was hoping to see, a more solid signal migrating through the timeframes (2 min chart)

 The 3 min chart is starting to make clear that same weakness in to price strength.

 The 5 min chart is really the fulcrum, we have the 3 min deteriorating, the next is the 5 min which is already in a relative negative position. How much it deteriorates tells us something about near term trade, but based on what we see and have seen for the last couple of days, my assumptions haven't changed that much.

 The 15 min chart really takes some underlying action to move and if the 5 min isn't going to make a strong move, I don't expect the 15 min to make a strong move so I'll stick with where the 15 min is for now.

Yesterday I erased the previous patterns that the market had been reacting to, they are history, we have this large bear flag. The current assumption is the very short term move (normally defined as about 5 days, but we are very choppy and volatile now and while the trend in the end may make it to the objective, there are likely to be noise days in between.) may move toward the bottom of the flag (red). If we add in market behavior, head fake moves, etc, then we should expect a break below the flag to draw in shorts. Should the 15 min chart hold up or even strengthen, we are pretty much back at our original assumptions (sharp move down-and a break below the flag will look like a sharp move down as volume would likely be high and momentum fast), followed by the move toward the top of the bear flag. Throw in market head fakes, etc, and we should expect a move above the top of the flag which would likely trigger the short squeeze we have only seen glimpses of but have expected.

This should finally set up an extreme move in an area we can add to long term trending trades such as the core shorts I continue to hold, several at 20-30% gains already. Unless the f_E_D steps in with QE, at that point I'd expect that the primary bear market trend will re-emrge. So you can see why even near term trade is important (a move below the flag could set a major bear trap and squeeze sending us toward the top of the flag).

So far today we have seen some decent clues, I hope we get more before the day is through.