Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Market Update

Although the divergences from yesterday that seem to have kept ES on an upward trajectory overnight and moved most of the averages above yesterday's close this morning, seems to be a shorter term move within the downtrend, or what I've called "boise", I'm not convinced this move is over yet, even though we've seen price pullback below yesterday's close in the averages. Early trade is the most deceptive trade, but here's what I'm looking at on the charts.

Starting with Financials where I opened a position in FAS (3x leveraged long financials) for a short term trade...
 The 3 min intraday chart shows yesterday's divergence and thus far this morning everything looks like it should, but...

 The 5 min trend of Financials is stronger than the 3 min chart and it still looks like it has plenty of power left in it, this is why I'm skeptical of this move being over and we have the same thing to different degrees in most of the averages.

As for FAS...

 The 2 min positive divergence at yesterday's afternoon lows, yet the downside this morning from the gap higher is not confirmed as 3C is still in a leading positive position.

 The 3 min chart also has a bigger divergence than what I would expect for an upside move thus far, it should be able to push FAS higher.

 The DIA 1 min (fastest chart) positive from yesterday and on the move down this a.m. note the positive divergence developing just now.

 The IWM 2 min chart is showing similar action.

 And the longer term IWM 5 min chart has a much bigger divergence that should produce a bigger upside move than we have thus far seen.

 The QQQ 1 min is also acting like the DIA and IWM right now with a newly forming positive divergence after the averages filled the gap from today (obviously not the QQQ).

 The SPY 1 min is in line, but..

The 3 min trend is bigger that the move we have seen to the upside, this is why I'm not convinced the upside move or noise within the downtrend is over.

No comments: