Risk Asset Layout Update

I wanted to take a closer look in to the specific risk assets rather than the broad CONTEXT model, what I see looks in many cases to be short term supportive and then support falls away, this is still more or less in line with the probability of higher prices before the short term trend resumes or the pullback trend resumes.

I'll have to keep an eye on 3C because at some point we will expect to see negative divergences in to higher prices, that tells us smart money is selling and/or shorting in to higher prices and that we are near a downside reversal.

As for the charts...

 Commodities intraday are held up around the same resistance area as the SPX, but in general commodities have shown better relative strength on this move down from the highs, just as they had been recently showing better relative strength in the move up.

 High Yield Credit still hasn't gone negative and sold off, I'm assuming until it does, we still have good probabilities of higher prices.

 The long term trend  or longer term 30 min chart also shows good confirmation, for a truly nasty downside move, I'd expect HY credit to go negative vs the SPX, so we may need to keep a very close eye on it if the market moves higher from here, this could be a big "tell".

 HY Corporate credit is looking a little less excited than its HY counterpart, this is fine for a noise move up.

 Rate are looking cooperative for a short term move higher, but as for the pullback aspect of the trend, they are severely dislocated longer term.

 This is largely what is probably driving CONTEXT, currencies as the $AUD has held up better than the SPX and the Euro below has as well. Longer term they are in line with the market pulling back and strongly.

 Energy's relative momentum vs the SPX is about in line.

 Financials, (this is where I chose a long -FAS) are showing better relative momentum vs the SPX.

 Tech was showing some optimism yesterday, that has fallen way off today.

In Sector rotation Financial and Industrials are in, the defensive sectors are rolling out except Staples which is hanging in there, Basic Materials, Tech and Discretionary are not doing well, this doesn't look good for the market, but we were only looking for a short term move, noise more or less in the downtrend.