Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Quick Market Update

So as I said, I don't mind if FAS moves higher from her, the market trend we are looking to trade is down and any price strength (so long as underlying trade remains as it is), is what I want to use to help me enter positions at higher probabilities and lower risk.

Hopefully a few examples will make this clear.

 Although many of the short term chart weakened quickly, the 5 min chart of the DIA is still just as positive as it was earlier, this suggests the DIA makes a move higher, I want to use a move higher to sell short in to, thus I'm trading with the highest probabilities.

 The IWM 5 min is in a similar situation, you may ask, "Why get out of longs if you expect higher prices", it's because the intraday charts like 1, 2, and 3 minute are falling apart fast and that could move in to this 5 min chart just as fast. The trend or the highest probabilities which has remained down, despite any noise, is where I want to focus most of my attention.

 The SPY 1 min chart, remember how impressive this was earlier flying high? Look how fast it just fell right back down, something in underlying trade is going on and I don't want to take risks trading against what I see as the highest probabilities.




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