Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Market Update

I'm not a huge fan of options expiration weeks, window dressing periods and worst of all Central Bank decision weeks and this week we have 2 of them. The market tends to look wishy-washy in those periods and I can't say that I find that strange, if you are managing billions of dollars, you too probably aren't going to make any big moves ahead of these very uncertain events-the money management industry just compounds that effect as they tend to herd together.

In any case, that's what this week has looked like thus far, indecision. There are few really decisive moves, the kind we normally see quite often. Here's where we stand so far.

 DIA 1 min shows some of yesterday's afternoon positive movement mentioned yesterday.

 The 3 min chart is in a very negative place, in the recent past I would have no problem at all calling this a short and downside reversal, the trend is that strong here.

 That has bled to the 5 min chart in a leading negative divergence and the 15 min chart has been negative since the get go, which is why I called this a noise move last week.

 DIA 15 min.

 QQQ 1 min distribution with a smaller positive divergence from yesterday afternoon.

 Here's the QQQ 1 min this morning, there's not much going on.

 QQQ 3 min showing strength from yesterday.

 However the more important 15 min chart lost a lot of ground yesterday. I usually default to the longer term charts when there is some question.


 SPY 1 min strength from yesterday

 SPY 1 min today.

 The SPY 2 min trend like many other looks very bad.

The SPY 5 in also looks pretty bad.

It seems to be the very near term action that is muddying the water as it seems there aren't any strong opinions being expressed in the market right now, at least the last several days.

I have a feeling the Risk Asset chart is going to be very important.

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