I'm actually glad to see some movement in the market, when there's movement it is easier to see who is doing what, when it's just flat chop signals are more difficult. I really need to be watching charts as we get some movement as I'm looking for clues, hints, pieces of the puzzle, but I wanted to at least take the time to show you what I saw and where we stand.
At 1:14 I published the move down looked like a shakeout move and we should see some upside in the market, so far this is on an intraday basis and being we didn't get the gap up that I was hoping for, we can still get a bearish candle on a move higher that fail to hold in to the close.
This is where I warned that there was upside coming based on short term 3C charts.
DIA 1 min didn't sound alarm bells, but there is a positive divergence in to the shakeout of the stops we saw earlier. This is good reason to 1) Keep stops mental and 2) Never place them at obvious places-that was a VERY obvious place.
The afternoon strength we saw yesterday in the market which later dies off, seems to have picked up on that shakeout, it makes some sense, they just grabbed a bunch of shares on the cheap, they need to push prices up to flip them.
The DIA 3 min trend shows some of that action from yesterday and today, but in an overall leading negative position, multiple divergences of this kind are like winning the battle, but losing the war.
DIA 15 min, you've heard me say it often, "When in doubt, go to the longer term charts". The only thing I'm really on the lookout for is whether there has been an about face in Wall Street's position or there will be one.
I try to update you on the fundamentals of the news, I'm not trying to bore you with news, but understanding that the ECB has not been active in the bond buying market for 5 months or so and this week they may make the decision to re-activate their bond buying mechanism is big news, it's a big policy change, it also shows how much trouble Spain and therefore the rest of Europe is actually in. The relationship between the ECB and Germany has changed dramatically, these are the kinds of news stories I try to bring you so you understand how the fundamentals are either "Normal" or "Something to take note of".
ES and the SPY 1 min charts are what set off alarm bells for an intraday move higher, the reason I say intraday is this is a 1 min positive divergence, it doesn't as of now, show anything that is much stronger than an intraday move, it's not the kind of divergence by itself that could move the market for a week.
The 2 min chart doesn't seem to show much migration from the 1 min chart, just a small relative positive divergence thus far, 3C also seems to show both declines at the negative divergences pretty clearly.
The longer term 2 min chart's trend, look how flat price is! Wall Street will never let that stand without head faking it and manipulating it, to expect a clean reversal down is to have not traded since 1996 and just come back in to the market, that is why I was hoping and looking for a gap up today, something to break up this flat range and send us in a direction.
The trend of the 5 min chart would also suggest that after the noise of the shakeout earlier and whatever this might turn in to, the probabilities are still for a bigger move down.
I'm going to observe, anything I find I will bring you, especially opportunities.
No comments:
Post a Comment