I must say this once a week and you probably get tired of it, but as far as advantages the general public has over Wall Street, there are few, but there is one.
You can pick and chose your battles, you don't have to make long term commitments and have action constrained by the size of your position, you can be nimble and you can chose when and where to deploy capital and undo that choice just as fast.
Your advantage may be summed up as the ability to show patience, which can be difficult for many of us who are attracted to the stock market, but it is an edge, whether you have the discipline to use it effectively is up to you.
So along those lines, as we have stalked many trades, many that are still open and profitable on a long term basis, I present NFLX as a possible long trade that looks like it wants to come to us.
It's difficult to say whether NFLX has formed a longer term "W" bottom going back to late 2011, but even the bottom at June 2012 looks to be a formidable base.
This recent run up is the area we are concerned with and targeting for a pullback, I won't go through all of the intraday timeframes, suffice it to say the 15 min above and 30 min below suggest a decent pullback. Because of the positioning of longer term charts, I believe we will see positive divergences in to the pullback, this would make NFLX an interesting buy candidate on price weakness and 3C strength.
30 min neg. divergence.
The 60 min chart's leading positive divergence suggests NFLX has barely started the move up.
As does the 4 hour, thus buying a pullback could be a very interesting, low risk, high probability trade.
As for some target areas...
The X-Over Screen suggests targets between $70-$75.
The Trend Channel suggests $77.50, however with a 30 min negative divergence, I would expect a deeper move. I think 3C should show us where and when positive divergences make NFLX a high probability long, I'd keep this one on your radar.
No comments:
Post a Comment