Tuesday, August 21, 2012

AAPL Update

AAPL's recent move, which I'm virtually certain is a head fake or false breakout, also known as a bull trap, is no different than BIDU's except in scale, which makes it worse for AAPL, you know that whole, "Bigger they are, harder they fall" thing...

 The point of a head fake breakout, false breakout, bull trap, is to do exactly that, find an obvious area of resistance and break out through it, thereby lifting the bull's confidence, the bulls enter the market providing the demand needed to sell/sell short in to by smart money and as the breakout fails, the string of stops set off causes a snow ball effect on the reversal as you can see BIDU is already down nearly 5% today alone, plus they make money on volume rebates. The BIDU head fake was above a resistance range, AAPL's as a market bellwether was bigger, but the same concept.

 AAPL's was a breakout above resistance too, just to a new high, if that can't bring in the AAPL longs, nothing will and it moves the NASDAQ disproportionately to the rest of the market. The first high to the left is where we started core shorts, AAPL has been added to recently.

 AAPL 2 min intraday looks bad, but, the trend shows the inner working of underlying smart money action in a head fake breakout.

 Note resistance, note what happens to 3C after a break out above resistance, the 2 min chart is near a pre-breakout leading low.


 The 5 min chart with an extremely nasty divergence as I mentioned yesterday, I saw a lot of these and you don't see them this nasty very often.

 The 5 min trend and the breakout level shows the same selling in to price strength at the exact spot where there would be retail demand to absorb the offers. This is leading to a new low well below the breakout point.

The 30 min chart with accumulation or stage 1, mark-up or confirmation also stage 2 at the green arrow and resistance at the red trendline, note the negative divergence in AAPL, the yellow areas are the first core short and the add-to position.


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