Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Not Great Evidence

Who knows, I could be totally wrong, it just seems to me there's a lot more volatility they could create, I wouldn't close any shorts based on a gut feeling, but just keep an eye out in case there is one and you may want to use it to your advantage to get better positioning.

As for the averages...
 This  1 min DIA positive could or may not be anything, there were others that were just noise today.

 On the other side of the coin, keeping the bearish momentum nailed down even if we do get a "gut Feeling" bounce, the 5 min leading deeply negative, even at the highs today.

 The 30 min is also turned down sufficiently to act as an anchor to prevent any bounce to do much.

 The QQQ 3 min is the best evidence i have found for my gut feeling.

 Holding down the other side of the equation, the 15 min leading negative and especially today, in other words, if we do get the bounce I had a git feeling about in the last post, it looks like you'd be well served by using it to short price strength as the downside turn looks locked in.

 SPY 3 min is similar to the Q's

 The 15 min is also similar with a strong leading negative divergence today.

 Commodities haven't sunk like the SPX today, that's a short term hint.

 Yields ar about in line.

 Longer term they are negative.

 The $AUD is not as negative as the SPX

 Yet as I posted yesterday, the $AUD is already signaling market trouble and the 3C chart for $AUD signals even more.

 The Euro also is not seeing the downside momentum the SPX is seeing, short term there could be some reversion to the mean.

Longer term, it looks like the reversal is locked in.

I'll keep looking.

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