GOOG Update

GOOG was added as a Core Short to the equities model portfolio and also as a spec trade in the option model portfolio, the Put is close to green, the equity short is green as GOOG was shorted at $671.56; it' a small gain for now, but it's an excellent entry on a trade that look to have a lot of potential.

 Again the concept is the same for APPL, BIDU and GOOG, price needs to give bulls confidence and break out above obvious resistance or a price pattern. I use 3C to determine the probability of the breakout being a head fake move which I want to short because of the excellent entry and less risk or whether the move is confirmed and I don't want to get involved short, nor do I want to chase it. These head fake moves have been some of the most effective short and long entries, but they go against everything that is human nature and are difficult trades to enter and stick with, but at the June lows, EVERY Equity Model Portfolio short was Green and some well over 35% in a month.


 Remember I said head fake moves/reversals occur on ALL timeframes, here's one out of a triangle in GOOG on a 5 min chart from yesterday that has now broken support, the big volume adds a lot of supply to the market and you know what that does to the supply/demand price dynamic, that is one reason head fake moves are so effective.

 The GOOG 2 min negative divergence yesterday.

 Note the 15 min chart going negative in to the breakout and leading negative now, but this is just part of the big picture.

 The 15 min chart zoomed all the way out to resistance areas in orange (2) we can see the 4 stages of a stock cycle in various places, but what interests me the most is the size of the negative divergence at this breakout move, especially compared to the size of the March divergence that turned GOOG. It looks like significant portfolio rebalancing by smart money.


 The 60 min chart gives even more history, again, the main trends are what interest me the most, but you can also see how price got to where it was going and what happens in underlying trade that creates a lot of deception in price alone.

Finally the daily since 2009, and this is one reason I like GOOG as a core short, look at the 2007 top, the 2009 bottom the 2011 top and now how low 3C is at the 2012 area.