Wednesday, August 22, 2012

AAPL Update

First I don't think too much is going to happen until the market gets a look at the F_O_M_C_ minutes, then as is almost always the case with anything from the F_E_D_, we should have an initial knee-jerk reaction, don't get too caught up in it as they tend to swing around, sometimes minutes, sometimes days, but they tend to be very volatile.

As for AAPL,

 For a daily chart and a breakout (you know what I think of this breakout), yesterday's candle is not a very welcome sight. First of al yesterday's AAPL closing candle is what is called, "Dark Cloud Cover", it opened above the previous close and closed at least half way through the previous day's candle body, this is a bearish reversal signal. Second, remember our concept of bullish/bearish candles and increased volume also being a reversal signal, take a look at yesterday's volume.

 The AAPL 1 min chart as mentioned early today, looks good, it's a positive divergence allowing the door to open for any institutions that want to lower their risk profile to do so, it's when the door starts to close and there are still institutions that want out that things get messy, especially with a potential head fake area just below.

 If the 1 min chart were scaled to intraday, you can see it's nearly perfectly in line, with a little stronger dip right now, but nothing too serious.

 It's the 2 min trend and where the first head fake area is that you see a pattern unfold, as price passes north of the head fake area, where retail longs will buy on a confirmed breakout, that you see the trend start leading negative.

 3 min chart intraday shows the negative divergence on yesterday's open and a slight positive in to the 2 pm low, but in all of the yellow boxes, there's not 1 really strong positive divergence in an area that should otherwise be seeing support pour in as it is a breakout new high.

 The same for the 5 min, as soon as the breakout was underway, the leading negative divergence was moving.

 How about the 5 min trend? At the green arrow it is in line, I'd actually need to zoom out more than I can to show you the proper scale which would be even lower. From confirmation to a deeper head fake zone and look at the trend as the head fake zone sees a breakout, look at 3C now, new LEADING LOWS!

 No love on the 15 min chart either here as it is now leading neg.


Ultimately the big picture of AAPL accumulation, mark up at the green arrows, a very negative divergence at the top where many of us shorted AAPL, the one big accumulation period I said I thought we'd have around the month of May at the lows and selling those shares since as 3C is leading negative when it should be making new highs.

I'm still holding all AAPL shorts whether equity or options. If I could add more, I'd try to add in to strength, probably phase in slowly if possible to get the best entry. After the short term charts, AAPL looks to have an anchor with the longer, more important charts.


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