Monday, August 20, 2012

I liked BIDU a Lot

That was before I saw this DAILY chart, now I nearly love it.

This also shows you very clearly with 3C exactly how institutional money is involved in the 4 stages of a cycle.

Stage 1 we see accumulation or what we might otherwise call a base, it doesn't look that big, but it is 3 months of nearly pure accumulation as divergences on daily charts are not that frequent and not usually this strong.

Stage 2 is Mark-Up, this is where they create a buzz around the stock, lift the price well above their accumulated average price.

Stage 3/A I'm braking this down in to 2 parts because it is 2 parts. Stage 3 is "Distribution and a Top", first there's distribution selling smaller amounts in to higher prices/demand. Wall Street positions are huge and to sell them in to higher prices they need to be fed out a little at  time so they don't drive price down by offering too much supply. As the top forms distribution should be nearly complete, they can sell short here as they know there's no more institutional support to drive prices higher.

Stage 3/B Top This is pretty self explanatory, the easy money has been made, while you might be able to pull a few more percent out, this very volatile chop is rarely worth trying to stay in the trade unless you are trading much more nimble.

Next is...

Stage 4 or better known as decline.

BIDU looks like a fantastic short here.

No comments: