Longer Term ES Indications

I haven't used the 3C longer term ES charts because of the lack of history on TOS and the confirmation problem, but there are several events on the ES charts that I can confirm from what we saw on the 3C charts so I have a lot more faith in them after seeing these areas of confirmation.

What do the longer term ES charts say?

 On the 15 min chart we see the sharp accumulation from last Thursday during market hours (darker blue background) , we have excellent 3C confirmation among all the averages for last Thursday's 1-day accumulation, as the SPX was moved above the bull flag today, a perfect area to bring in longs on a bull-trap, we see a negative/leading negative divergence today at the highs.

 At 30 mins,  we see again accumulation sending the market higher, a negative divergence to pull it back to Thursday's lows where we see another positive divergence (confirmation here) and a leading negative divergence at today's highs.

 On a 60 min chart, the 1 day positive divergence from last Thursday isn't big enough to show up, contrast that with the leading negative position we are in now as the market has been moving in what is like a large bear flag, as we have moved higher in that flag, you can see plainly that 3C has moved consistently lower which would be in line with distribution in to higher prices-it's a process, not an event.

 The 1 day goes back to the highs to the negative divergence at the highs where we were establishing core shorts and the flag portion of the pattern is clear to the right, again, 3C in a leading negative divergence, the first formed the flag pole, the second has grown more negative as the flag has ascended.

The 1 week has the least noise, the 2011 late July negative divergence taking the market down 20% in a flash is visible as well as the higher prices in to the seasonal adjusted, BS (excuse my french) fundamentals of the start of 2012, here we are at higher prices yet 3C at lower levels, exactly in line with what we were saying as those seasonal adjusted beats came in driving the market higher early in the year.

In any case, for the near term, it looks like the trend down we have been looking for that I have said should be a pullback, but much worse, may even be worse than that.