Monday, August 6, 2012

On the uncertainty of Certainty-USO Follow Up

You may have heard the phrase, "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy"? That's because of the uncertainty in the run-up to potential conflict and the market hates uncertainty, once the war starts the market can go about discounting, until then, it's not very happy.

On top of that, Oil has been very volatile on the entire MENA situation, but none more so than Syria.

Earlier this morning there was a fake Tweet from a fake account for the Syrian Interior Minister saying that Assad had been "killed or injured", then reports he had been killed, then confirmation (from the same account) that Russia had confirmed Assad's death.

Then via Reuters:

 RUSSIAN INTERIOR MINISTRY DENIES ISSUING ANY STATEMENT ON ASSAD'S HEALTH VIA TWITTER: Reuters

Since things are fluid, here's the fastest USO 3C chart...

 USO intraday 1 min today

 A longer view, remember Thursday we had seen short term accumulation pretty much market wide, then Friday the Energy sector started showing fairly clear signs of negative divergences with Financials holding up best.

 A closer look intraday from Friday to today, the quick positive divergence this a.m. just before USO went up and two larger relative negative divergences.

This isn't something I would personally want to trade at this moment, but if the signals get stronger, it is something I would consider.

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