A Quick Look at the Dow

At first site the Dow doesn't appear to be in a dire situation, it actually looks a bit plain, but as always, it's those things that we see and the crowd misses that give us an edge.

The Dow is also one of the averages of only a few that we can get direct 3C readings from, not that they differ that much.

 This is a key formation in the Dow, it may not look that key, but look at it from a different vantage point with a 5 day chart (this is why we compare as much as possible, you never know where you'll find a big clue).

 On a 5 day chart, this looks very much like a very clear and probably organic bear flag, I say organic meaning created by human emotion rather than manipulation (not the price trend, we saw the June bottom head fake/accumulation), but the actual bear flag because it IS NOT obvious on a daily chart. For those members who have been around for a while, you may recall a string of trades that were successful during a period in which the market had formed a lot of channels and then produced "Channel Busters", which is (in this case) an upside breakout from the channel that appears to be bullish, but in almost all instances they were bearish. A simple understanding of how technical traders would view such a breakout allows you to put together how that move is used against them. The bottom line though as the Trend Channel uses as it's very premise is that changes in character precede changes in trend. Look at what has happened to the trend since the Channel Buster break out failed.

It is in this area of the Channel Buster that I have felt we have seen the actual end of this move or the pivot.

 Most Technical traders are looking at a daily chart and will have drawn the trendlines like this, but even her we see some key 1 day distribution days with candlesticks with long upper wicks where higher prices were rejected.

 Using the "Clear Method" Swing Trading trend identification (slightly modified) there's a clear difference between the last 2 pullback/corrections and the current one, higher highs have not been made, a series of lower lows have been and today officially makes a new lower low as Friday's low is already surpassed, today already qualifies as a key day and not a noise day no matter how it closes, the move was bearish.

 Stripping out the noise of the DIA trend with a 4 hour chart, the May 1 top is clear, the June 4 low is clear and the current negative divergence is clear.

 The hourly chart is the same.

 And the 15 min chart

This is the actual Dow-30 and not the DIA

 The 4 hour chart, really ugly.

 60 min

15 min.

While somethings don't jump out (the important things on price only charts rarely do jump out), other things are VERY clear in the same suspect areas identified on price-only charts and this is just the Dow.

The reason I started looking closer at this is so I could view the areas technical traders will think are important and watch how the average reacts at these areas (they aren't as important as other areas that aren't easily identifiable from a daily chart only).