Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Here's another bothersome chart-TLT

TLT trades nearly exactly opposite the market, it is a long term 20+ year Treasury ETF, it is what you call a "Flight to safety trade" when the market looks to be in trouble, why is it not dropping like a rock?

There's even a positive divergence late in the day that I didn't expect to see today, price alone should be near vertical to the downside with the market move.

This is what bothers me, it looks like a last minute flush of risk assets in to very quick demand, no one has any idea why, it APPEALS to greed. If in fact the move is toward risk on, why aren't they aggressively re-positioning out of TLT?

This feels like exactly what I just said, an impulsive move to create impulsive buying by appealing STRONGLY to our greed instinct.

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