Monday, September 10, 2012

AAPL Update

It turns out the $680 level I was looking for in AAPL to add to the other half of the put position I had been waiting on was (apparently) the right level. I didn't use Elliot Wave or even my own indicators to come up with this target, I used the Technical price patterns and how I thought (based on watching the market and its behavior especially regarding technical analysis) traders would respond, what Wall Street needed from them and how Wall Street would use technical analysis against technical traders.

 You probably recall the two symmetrical triangles which carry no bias by themselves, they depend on the preceding trend for their bias, which made both bullish continuation patterns and that's how technical traders would read them; this is why I was looking for a move to $680+ to fill out the Put position in AAPL. We saw a Crazy Ivan shakeout on the second triangle, but ultimately it did what it was expected to do. Now with the move below that triangle' apex, AAPL is in position to lock in a small bull trap, a larger bull trap is lower and AAPL longs will likely hold until that area is hit, which is good news for AAPL shorts as it would create more downside momentum with more stops hitting at once than piece-meal. Volume thus far indicates there's no major fear yet, for me, I'm glad to see that.

 I still think the key event in AAPL occurred at lower prices at this high volume churning day. Today's daily candle is ugly, but not enough to scare out AAPL longs.

 The $680 level I had been waiting for...

 Look at the sharp decay in 3C at the break above $680, excellent.

 On a 3 min chart thus far today we have confirmation. I'd like to see an intraday bounce from here and just confirm distribution in to it.

Ultimately the stops are going to be thick at these levels and $650, the final cherry is at the psychological century mark of $600.

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