GLD-Miners

Here are the GLD charts, the larger picture was in place, once that happens we come back around to the shorter timeframes for tactical execution. While I have suspected miners would see weakness with gold soon, I have not backed the idea of a trade there yet with much enthusiasm, however now the probability signals are lining up, something I have waited for before talking too much about looking at a long DUST position or short GDX/GDXJ. Junior miners are showing good probabilities, although they do look like they have a higher probability of near term choppiness (perhaps only intraday or for several hours), where as GDX looks less prone to choppiness, although they tend to track each other pretty well.


As for GLD, with the longer term negatives solidly in place, I have felt the recent upside in GLD was strictly tied to Central Bank action, it doesn't even have to be well planned action and it was not (I suspect intentionally) for the knee jerk effect to take place, it almost ALWAYS does and rarely matters whether its the ECB or the F_E_D, the knee jerk effect from policy announcements is well documented, so much so I ALWAYS warn of it before policy events as I did last week and we did see a knee-jerk reaction.

I suspect lesser informed money reacts positively to things they don't entirely grasp whereas smarter money with a better understanding of the implications uses the knee jerk effect to their benefit. In any case, initial knee jerk responses rarely hold up. For now, technically speaking GLD appears to only be backing and filling a gap from this morning's open.

 GLD 60 min solidly negative

 Same on the 30 min

 And 15 min.

 You already saw the 1 min early positive that seems to be behind the backing and filling, the 2 min is already deteriorating.

The 5 min shows what I explained above about the usefulness of useful idiots.

I am starting to warm to a long DUST position or short GDX as the signals are giving evidence which is what I wait on, regardless of my instinct or intuition.