Currencies: Euro, $USD, AUD

I had a request for currency analysis and I was very proud to receive it, members are looking at what moves the markets and not moving averages and every other indicator that all retail traders are looking at (where's the edge in knowing what everyone else knows?)

Here they are...

 The EUR/USD pair since opening trade this week

 Since the 9:30 N.Y. open a series of lower highs/lower lows and an area of support that could influence a short term bounce on a legacy arbitrage basis, although these correlations have been much weaker than in years past. Since capturing this chart 10 minutes ago, the Euro has plunged through this support level to make a new lower low.

 EUR/USD daily, remember the most recent data I've seen anyway, shows Euro shorts at lows for the year so the idea of a powerful Euro short squeeze is pretty much moot, there was enough of a move to break resistance, but that seems to be a failed or failing move. Remember failed moves create very fast reversals.

 Euro 1 min intraday, you can see why it's not performing well.

 3 min chart-not only shows migration of the negative 1 min divergence, but also increased deterioration.

 The $USD seeing  1 min leading positive divergence, this should effect risk assets like stocks, oil, metals-although gold is more driven now by QE sentiment than arbitrage correlations.

 $USD 2 min leading/migration

 USD 3 min leading positive

 5 min leading positive

 And as the other side of the SPY 15 min leading negative, the $USD 15 min lading positive.

However the currency with excellent leading indications, the Australian Dollar, shows bad deterioration in underlying trade, this is not a good sign for the market.

 3C shows the recent bounce in the AUD as being under distribution

 The 2 min chart confirms both the set up cycle for the bounce and the distribution in to the price strength.

 That arrow should be red for distribution on the 3 min AUD chart, the leading negative divergence should also be highlighted with a red box.

 Here's what it should look like on a 5 min chart, also note the migration from the 1 min scale to the 5 min scale.

Most importantly is the 4 hour chart which doesn't have the detail of day to day moves, but shows the trend clearly, if we judge by the last negative divergence in February (thereabouts) we have a much more serious move now. As a popular half of a carry trade pair (AUD/JPY) this would not only confirm the carry trade is over, it would also confirm the very weak underlying institutional trade in the market averages, which many breadth indicators have already confirmed as well as our leading indicators, it also speaks volumes to the situation in China which we first identified weakness last year on commodity weakness, within the next 2 weeks we had Chines and HSBC PMI Manufacturing data confirming contraction in Chinese manufacturing. Recently Chinese manufacturing has seen 3 consecutive months of contraction with 4 consecutive misses to consensus. Today we get additional information in which import growth was expected, but instead we saw import contraction and 22 month lows in crude imports, all of which confirms the PMI data from last week with the 16 biggest manufacturers in the world (countries) all in contraction and 80% of the world in manufacturing contraction. Taking that thought 1 step further, US manufacturing PMI data from last week showed another month of contraction with the sub-indicies showing contraction in new orders, exports and what may be one of the biggest factors in F_O_M_C  policy this week, input costs rising, along with consumer inflation in food/gas.