Thursday, September 20, 2012

Overnight Bad news

With the market getting QE3, it is probably safe to say bad news is no longer good news that rallies the market in anticipation of a higher probability of getting QE3, but it's also a time to collect data, see how the market reacts.

This is ES overnight...

 The yellow arrow is the 3 1m EDT European open

From 3 am to present, thus far there are no positive divergences in ES which is down about 8 points from 4 pm yesterday, gold is down a bit, oil is off slightly, but nothing big-nearly unchanged.

The bad news overnight started in Asia and kept rolling, bad PMI manufacturing data in China sent the Shanghai composite down 2% which is near 4 year lows.  Then Europe followed with a PMI miss. Rolling in to the American morning, Initial Claims miss again for the 5th of 6 misses.

First China...

The HSBC Flash PMI for China came in at 47.8 which is slightly better than last months at 47.6, but still in contraction under 50 for 11 months now. This is part of the news that sent the Shanghai close to 4 year lows. Other bad news from China was based on accelerating bad home loans; since the end of 2011, China's 10 largest banks have reported that delinquent home loans rose from 112.9 bn Yuan to $489 bn Yuan, that's  333% rise in delinquent loans and only since the end of 2011!

Europe...

Europe's Composite PMI came in at 45.9 down from 46.3 missing consensus of an improvement to 46.6! Manufacturing was up at 46 (still in contraction) from 45.1, Services was down to 46 from 47.2.

French Manufacturing too  huge hit to print at 4 year lows at 42.6 from previous of 46 and expectations of 46.4!

In the US...

Initial Claims...
Released On 9/20/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk9/15, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level382 K373 K365 K to 390 K382 K
4-week Moving Average - Level375.00 K377.75 K
New Claims - Change15 K-3 K

382k misses consensus of 373k, this week was lower than last weeks 382k as it was revised up to 385k for the 86th week in a row of upward revisions, making the headline print that IC dropped!

Meanwhile the F_E_D's Fisher says inflation expectations are rising!

So we'll see what we can soak up from today's data...

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