I'd prefer not enter an asset that is super sensitive to F_O_M_C policy (even if just on a knee jerk basis) the day before an F_O_M_C_ meeting, however if I didn't already have some exposure to GLD, I would be looking at adding some now, how aggressive is up to the individual, I already have open Put positions in GLD and will be sitting tight. If I didn't have them, I might consider either a smaller Put position, maybe something like an equity position in a 3x leveraged bear gold ETF like GLL or more conservatively, a position just short GLD.
For new positions I think I'd have to seriously consider a phased in entry with some exposure in this area, but allowing room (with a wide stop) to add on a transient knee-jerk move). If I had a partial position short GLD, I'd leave that in place and look for an opportunity to add to it tomorrow, if the opportunity doesn't arise, at least you still have some exposure.
As for the options model portfolio, I talk a lot about one of my favorite traders, Jesse Livermore and how he talked about a lot of people were right on the market yet didn't make money and it wasn't his being right on the market that made him money, but in his words, his "sitting" (patience, conviction of his belief in his position despite market volatility).
Today I'm seeing that payoff in the model options portfolio that has a lot of positions that are moving the right way.
That's #2 out of 1020 portfolios, earlier in the week the equity model portfolio was in the top 10 or 11.
While all the volatility swirls around, sticking with the longer term 3C signals is paying off.
As for Gold...
GLD is looking VERY extended up here sitting on a large gap and in a flat range for 4 days.
Like so many other 5 min charts, this one looks horrible as well, but this isn't the reason for a position in GLD.
This 30 min chart is, the 5 min chart just helps with confidence for timing.
This 4 hour chart's movement right at the gap up and range is also a compelling case.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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