Friday, September 28, 2012

Market Update-Consolidation

As I stated when the averages first started leading positive before noon, I'd rather have seen a slower forming, larger base. As we see some slowdown in 3C and price, I suspect that may be what is happening.

Similar signals are in all of the averages as well as futures o I'll use the SPY as an example.

 1 min SPY has lost intraday momentum here, this could be a lateral consolidation or as I would have preferred to see, perhaps a deeper consolidation. I hoped to see something more along the lines of this...

 more of a rounding or lateral consolidation with 3C improvement.

However from where we are now, we could still consolidate sideways a bit and add to positive divergences or pullback in a small "W" like price formation, as long as the pullback saw 3C moving higher, then the bounce continuing would still remain the most likely outcome.


 The 2 min chart of the SPY, which was lagging this morning, even saw a fast leading positive divergence, it has given up some of that.


As long as the 3 min chart holds up, then this is just intraday volatility and not a big deal, but should the longer timeframes start to deteriorate then the second option I mentioned this morning as the least likely, deterioration of the bounce, would be a concern for the near term.

We do have to consider it is quarter end and there's window dressing and the likes going on.

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