As I stated when the averages first started leading positive before noon, I'd rather have seen a slower forming, larger base. As we see some slowdown in 3C and price, I suspect that may be what is happening.
Similar signals are in all of the averages as well as futures o I'll use the SPY as an example.
1 min SPY has lost intraday momentum here, this could be a lateral consolidation or as I would have preferred to see, perhaps a deeper consolidation. I hoped to see something more along the lines of this...
more of a rounding or lateral consolidation with 3C improvement.
However from where we are now, we could still consolidate sideways a bit and add to positive divergences or pullback in a small "W" like price formation, as long as the pullback saw 3C moving higher, then the bounce continuing would still remain the most likely outcome.
The 2 min chart of the SPY, which was lagging this morning, even saw a fast leading positive divergence, it has given up some of that.
As long as the 3 min chart holds up, then this is just intraday volatility and not a big deal, but should the longer timeframes start to deteriorate then the second option I mentioned this morning as the least likely, deterioration of the bounce, would be a concern for the near term.
We do have to consider it is quarter end and there's window dressing and the likes going on.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
No comments:
Post a Comment