Friday, September 7, 2012

Market Update

I just want to let you know, if you sent an email, I will try to get to it ASAP, I'm working my way through them in between going through charts.

I picked a few charts that are decent representations, they are not cherry picked though.

Futures...
 ES

 NQ (NASDAQ)

 DIA daily chart, the bearish ascending wedge is expected to break to the downside as it did, the only problem was the downside break would have already stopped out any or most shorts as yesterday made a higher high (red) above local resistance and also above the apex pivot of the wedge. Technical traders are taught that Technical Analysis is virtually infallible, so if the the chart pattern doesn't go as expected, reverse your position (in this case go long which yesterday was an emotionally VERY easy thing to do). This is really a perfect chart pattern to manipulate traders, yesterday's knee jerk move on already leaked (a day earlier) ECB policy was in my opinion, more of a psychological set up than anything.

 This DIA 60 min chart shows yesterday's parabolic move, while a 60 min chart "could" confirm, especially if underlying trade was as strong as price made it appear, it usually takes a little time, but there was no effort so as much as I don't trust parabolic moves to start with, as much as I don't trust Central Bank Knee-jerk reactions, this chart adds the 3rd strike.

 A 15 min chart could have easily confirmed yesterday's move, again, not even an effort, in fact quite the opposite.

 Intraday, the 1 min chart is in leading negative position, it does have a small positive intraday divergence within that so maybe some upside volatility, but I wouldn't be buying or chasing it by any means.

 DIA 3 min shows a larger leading negative with a positive divergence within it, it wasn't good for much of a gap, but sometimes it's more about just giving enough support to keep price from pre-maturely collapsing. Today we have a new leading negative low. I used the DIA as an example of what I'm considering when looking closely and stepping back.

 IWM 2 min today leading negative, but...

 it's worse than that, zoom out and include yesterday and the extent becomes apparent.

 QQQ negative, note all the candlestick wicks rejecting higher prices and today's leading negative new low.

 The same QQQ chart with more perspective, adding several days.

 SPY 1 min today, the price range/flat trend often tells us a lot without any other indicators.

The same chart with perspective, today is exceptionally sharp.

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