Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Euro and Australian Dollar

Very short term, more so in the Euro, 3C looks like it wants to pullback, this would be consistent with the market pulling back, although recently it (the market) has moved against the normal currency legacy arbitrage and the correlation hasn't been as strong.

The Australian Dollar /$AUD is more of a leading indicator, it too shows some near term or short timeframe signs of wanting to pullback, but still remains strong in the timeframes that would suggest the market moves higher as we have been seeing build over the last week.

Here are the charts...
EURO/FXE
 Very short term 2 min chart suggests a pullback from this move up.

 The 5 min chart suggests the same

 Longer term on a 30 min chart, which is about where we are seeing the positive divergences in the market, this is still in very good position for a move higher, likely to break above the recent range.

$AUD/FXA
 3 min $AUD also looks like it wants to pullback, perhaps intraday, but definitely short term, this isn't a serious trend.

 The 5 min chart is in better shape, it is in leading positive position, but still shows a small relative negative divergence for a pullback.

 The 10 min chart is in a very nice looking leading positive divergence which makes sense with what we see in the market averages and many stocks.

And the 15 min chart is also leading positive and should make a swing on the upside similar to the last swing we saw from the last positive divergence.

Looking at the currency pairs themselves, the above makes sense.


 EUR/USD is a little extended from the trendline, it did find support at $1.29

 The longer term view shows some resistance coming up, so a small pullback here would make sense.


The AUD is also approaching a resistance area so a short term pullback wold make some sense here, a breakout above would certainly help the market move higher.

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