Tuesday, October 16, 2012

FAS Update

FAS is another position we just picked up yesterday, some of us Friday, it is the 3x long financial ETF and so far it has done what we expected and I still like the trade, I still think there's more upside in it and as for tomorrow, it has the same indications as TQQQ late in the day on the 1 min chart.

 This was the triangle FAS was in, the move below the triangle on Friday I suspected was a head fake move and yesterday we saw a bullish hammer reversal candle form on the close. Today we have an indecision Doji candle and right at the apex of the triangle, according to Technical Analysis, this is a high probability/low risk area to short, a second chance if you will and I believe that is why FAS is slowing down here, but I do think it has more upside and will leave the position open. Yesterday I said I think we will see 2 head fake moves in FAS, one already on the downside and the second on an upside move and then Financials may be ready to short for a bigger picture trade.

 The 2 min chart has a negative divergence that sent FAS laterally to consolidate through time as well like TQQQ, but any new divergence will show up on the 1 min chart first...

Like TQQQ, FAS has an end of day positive divergence forming, leading me to believe any shorts entering FAS today will likely be squeezed tomorrow.

For the time being, I'm keeping this long position open and I think it's still in a decent area to initiate  a new position if you missed it the last couple of days.

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