Tuesday, October 16, 2012

IBM Update

IBM is a longer term equity short position that is actually still in the green, I'd like to add to the position, but only on some price strength and 3C weakness.

Here's the update.

 This 5 day chart shows IBM as a likely double top. Technical traders expect the second top not to exceed the first top, but in reality, that second top making a higher high on a head fake move is more common than not in double tops and bottoms. That is where I'd like to add to IBM short.

 On a daily chart, between the two top areas IBM put in a bull flag at the red arrows and then a bullish ascending triangle at the yellow arrow, that triangle initially failed taking any premature longs down with it, but I do think it will see an upside breakout before IBM really heads down and that is where I want to short it provided the 3C charts still show weakness.

 Here's a closer view of the 2 price patterns, the yellow arrow is where I think IBM is going and where I'd consider adding to the open short position in place now.

 The 60 min chart looks horrible so I don't think IBM is a good long candidate by any means.

 The key 15 min chart is leading negative as well, but has shown a very recent relative positive divergence sending it higher  on this last leg up.

 The 10 min chart is showing a negative divergence in to this leg up as I'd like to see.

As is the 5 min chart, I just want to see these divergences keep up or worsen with IBM above the $212 area, then it's more likely than not that I would add enough to bring the current half position size to full size.

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