Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Risk Asset Update

In reference to the last post, I'll say, "Just as I thought".

As soon as I finish this post, I'll be looking for the rest of the TQQQ entry.

 Commodity relative momentum vs the SPX is much better, this is a positive divergence in one of our leading indicators, it took 2.5 days to build, but reversals are a process not an event, the bigger the divergence the bigger the move which makes me wonder considering how small the negative divergence to the left was.

 HY Credit intraday is positive.

 HY credit longer term is also positive over a week

 The best leading indicator among the currencies, the $AUD is positive

 Now even the Euro which is more of a confirmation indication, is also positive, just on arbitrage alone the market should move up.

 As for the 3 major groups, Energy's relative momentum has faded, this is why we closed UCO/USO earlier today, but...

 Financials are showing a positive divergence vs the SPX and are barely down on the day, the XLF daily chart looks like what I'm looking for in the average's close today.

Tech's relative momentum is also positive, I can't see how the market doesn't rally in to the close and give us a daily reversal candle.

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