Wednesday, November 28, 2012

AAPL is the odd one

Now that the normal market hours are over, it will be interesting to see what the EUR/USD does and what else happens with futures, algos can easily manipulate the low volume environment, but do they need to.

Why the work of algos? Look at AAPL. AAPL is the stock of choice when they usually want to move the market higher because it's weight is the same as 50% of other NASDAQ 100 stocks combined, move 50 stock or 1? 

However AAPL didn't lead this move, in fact it didn't even keep pace and I think I see why....
 The 1 min intraday chart is the easiest to move, often in the past before HFTs were so dominant in the market, a market maker or specialist could and usually did move this timeframe, which made it very suitable for day trading trends intraday. No movement there, not even confirmation.

Why? AAPL is a LARGE Cap, it's also an expensive one at that, algos can move the market pretty cheaply if they hit the right areas where they get help from retail, but I'm not sure if that happened or not, I'd ned to look closer at the breadth and internals.

The real problem with moving AAPL is this...

 I'm not even drawing in the trend lines to highlight the divergences because they are so obvious, just look at the timeframe and dates, this is a 5 min over 3 days

 This is a 10 min over about 3.5 days, this is a pretty heavy timeframe.


And this is the 15 min which is superior at calling swing moves, it's a serious timeframe and that's a serious divergence, I think there's too much flow out of AAPL over the last 3 days to make up for it enough to get it to move and thus move the market.

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