Here it is from 10:30...
| Released On 11/28/2012 10:30:00 AM For wk11/23, 2012 |
| Prior | Actual |
| Crude oil inventories (weekly change) | -1.5 M barrels | -0.3 M barrels |
| Gasoline (weekly change) | -1.5 M barrels | 3.9 M barrels |
| Distillates (weekly change) | -2.7 M barrels | -0.8 M barrels |
I wish they provided consensus so there was some context like they do with Natural Gas.
In any case the reaction in USO is difficult to discern from the overall market, the Euro saw a bounce with the market, the $USD saw a milder decline, that would be supportive of oil, but if that' all that oil is hanging on to (legacy arbitrage), then I might be a bit concerned. |
This is USO in green, the Euro in red, obviously the arbitrage effect is moving oil here, it doesn't seem like the EIA report, but we've seen some strange stuff in oil on Wednesdays so I'll keep an eye on it. Right now I don't see any high probability position, that was several days back.
USO 1 min negative yesterday intraday and at a relative positive divergence this morning.
The 3 min chart is in line.
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The 5 min chart shows a great spot on a head fake move that was in to a negative divergence on the 19th , that was the only real high probability move in USO so I'd be patient and let it develop, let the trade come to you, whichever way that will be. I suspect if there's nothing else moving it other than FX, then it should see downside over the next few days assuming the middle east stays quiet.
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