Friday, November 9, 2012

Example

This is a shorter example. It seems clear the market was ahead of itself earlier as I was mentioning and uncomfortable with, is clearly because of this speech from the Republicans and President. That leaves some excesses in price so it's not surprising to see the pullback, the negative divergence was there in the intraday charts suggesting profit taking.

So here's a quick look at the Q's as an example and what is probable.

Looking at the full market update earlier (last post-not quite full, but enough to make the point), we have some very positive divergences that were in place and confirmation moves today that added to several. The other thing is the longer term charts and that's where the highest probabilities are, are positive and where before today. Here's a possible scenario that isn't much different than what I described on Wednesday this week.

 Looking at the 1 min chart for the QQQ on an intraday basis, you can see two negative divergences, the first with a consolidation through time the second through price.

Now look at the 1 min chart's trend which is far more important than the intraday signal.

 This is leading positive in a big way, this is overall bullish.

 Just to see, the 2 min chart saw little to now damage so it doesn't appear there was any strong distribution today other than profit taking on an intraday basis. Again a very bullish chart.


 I used the 10 min chart in the last post to make this example, but even using the 5 min chart, if price pulls back here and I'm not going to even make a guess as to where and we get accumulation in to that pullback as the charts have suggested on this move since Wednesday, imagine that 5 min or 10 min chart leading even that much further, we'd be looking at what may very well be an INTENSE move to the upside even larger than I've contemplated.

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