Friday, November 9, 2012

Overnight-Greece

ES wasn't in the recent tight overnight range last night. After an afternoon positive divergence in ES, it ran higher overnight about 8 + points to only drop in to the European open and test a low this morning giving it about a 17 point range. ES is off the lows of about 8:30 and currently moving up about 4 points below its level of 4 pm yesterday.

What happened overnight? That second vote that was really important on Wednesday in Greece to approve the austerity measures so Greece could receive the next $31.5bn Euro tranche to pay upcoming debt due in November, looks like it won't be forthcoming in time according to the German Finance Ministry that says they don't think they can get the German Lower House to approve the funds by Monday, the date of the Eurogroup Finance minister's meeting where the issue is to be resolved. However in a bit of good news for Greece if not just comical relief, George Soros said he may be willing to commit serious funds to the Greek rescue.

To make overnight matters worse, a bunch of European Industrial Production numbers missed as has been the trend since I can remember there last being a trend which is quite a while.

Here's what ES looks like as of about 8:55 a.m. (I have to fit overnight on two charts)
 ES 1 -The green arrow is the European open.

Green arrow is the European open and to the right, 8:55 a.m.

I am interested in this chart of the EUR/USD...
I just started using 3C on the pair and the last divergence in the pair worked well, overnight you can see a negative going in to the European open just as you can see on ES, however there's a larger positive in place right now, a rising Euro/falling dollar lets up the pressure on the market and allows it to move up.




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