Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Opening Indications-2 Charts

Here are the charts which aren't a surprise given the Greek joke of a fix, they decided how all of the money for Greece would be disbursed, they came up with pie in the sky projections, they just didn't come up with the money and what most people forget is even if a deal is 100% agreed on at the meeting, the Finance Ministers still have to go back to their respective countries and pass the deal through parliament and there are few governments with much patience left for Greece.

Just to answer a bunch of emails before I get them, YES, AAPL does look to be in trouble here.

The 3C distribution through the Euro i showed you yesterday. Also the set up that uses Technical Analysis against traders, we had a bullish sym. Triangle in white which is a trend consolidation/continuation pattern that should run at least as high as the trend preceding it, we have the head fake above $1.30 in yellow and as prices break below $1.30 and the apex of the triangle all those longs are now at a loss and selling. Remember the Euro is positively correlated with the market, meaning they almost always trade together whereas the $USD is inversely correlated, meaning they trade opposite each other.


 DIA 1 min with NO confirmation on the open, but that's not the real problem...

 The real problem is this leading negative 5 min chart that saw a lot of damage done yesterday that wasn't there last week when we expected a pullback early this week. In a way, the market owes us a pullback, smart money set up for it in the near term, however don't forget this should ONLY be a pullback, not a trend change as we have much larger, longer timeframe charts that are very positive so we can use this to look for longs at a discount and lower risk as well as the shorts on the way down.


 IWM 1 min NO confirmation

 The 10 min chart from accumulation to ugly distribution, a lot of damage was done yesterday.

 QQQ 1 min, NO confirmation

 Damage done on the 5 min QQQ chart

 SPY 1 min looks like it is inline, but...

 zoom out to the trend and it is leading negative.

Also significant short term damage on the 10 min chart.

We have a long day ahead of us still so i wouldn't expect any straight line moves, expect volatility, but near term probabilities are very high for a pullback.

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