Friday, December 14, 2012

AAPL Charts

Wow, what a horrible day for the country.

I don't mean to down play it and I'm not a news source, just really shocking.

As for the AAPL charts,

 AAPL Daily and this is a concept you can use on just about any timeframe, but the longer the better (daily charts work great). We can see the "Hammer" candlestick on 11/16, it kicked off this most recent move in the market, a Hammer is a bullish reversal/support candle and all of these reversal candles are much more reliable when they have heavier volume than the previous day and the heavier the volume, the more reliable, just like a mini capitulation day (for upside reversals) or like churning (for downside reversals).

Today AAPL gapped down and formed a small bodied star (not to be confused with a Doji), volume was excellent, so this will likely end up being a variation of a Morning Star reversal with the gap in place and it found support right at the Hammer from 11/16.

There's also a bigger potential head fake move on the chart which may help explain today's volume.
This is a Bear Pennant, a bearish consolidation/continuation pattern, honestly I didn't even notice it until today, but it's fairly obvious. The first break below the pennant was yesterday and volume was increasing yesterday as it should with a break below the pennant, today volume increased even more because price moved below the bottom of the pennant. where it found support from the 11/16 hammer.

As far as underlying trade during this daily chart pattern, the 3 min chart could easily confirm the move down from the pennant by 11 a.m. this morning, it could have confirmed it yesterday, but it didn't-the same thing I was waiting to see in the QQQ and other averages as the triangle was broken to the downside, is right here....
3C seems to follow or almost trade out the entire pattern, the flag-pole decline, the pennant formation, but it DOES NOT confirm the downside break down which if the bear pennant is being used for a false break down as mentioned in this post we should see confirmation easily on such a fast timeframe.

This weekend I'm going to write an article/post on head fake moves, false breakouts, false break downs and explain when, where and most importantly, why they occur-how Wall Street uses them and how we can use them to our benefit.

 Here's AApL intraday 1 min chart with intraday support at the 11:15-ish lows, this is why technical traders get abused so often, they are so predictable, look at the volume rise as price crosses below intraday support. Then see how volume increases as that support/now resistance is taken out on the upside.

 Here;s the 5 min chart which also did not confirm the move below the pennant.

 And overall the 15 min chart that tells us something bigger is happening in AAPL right now, it's not obvious what yet, but it will be soon and it's positive.

 I don't know if this is dovetailing in to the longer 30 min base since late October, it may be.

 However even on this different 3C version on TOS, something is going on here-60 min chart.

 The NASDAQ seems to know it, 1 min intraday with no downside confirmation and a stronger leading positive at the end of today.

That migrated to the 3 min chart even though there wasn't much time left in the day.

No comments: