Leading Indicators

I  took a pretty quick look at these and had to cut it short when my alerts went off, but here's what I came up with (to summarize, leading indicators are more positive than the comparison symbol , the SPX).

*Unless otherwise specified, the comparison symbol in green will always be the S&P-500*

 Commodities intraday today are performing much better than the market, being a risk asset they typically should follow the market for the most part, but there's a dislocation between the market and currencies short term that the market is ignoring (maybe op-ex, maybe manipulation with this triangle), however commodities seem to be embracing the normal correlation risk assets share with currencies.

 This is the same chart, same timeframe, same asset-commodities, I replaced the SPX (green) with the Euro which the market and commodities have a positive correlation with, meaning they tend to move with it as commodities are doing today while the market ignores the Euro for the time being.

 Back to commodities vs the SPX, this is a 15 min chart and a longer view of the bounce/rally since 11/16 and as you can see in a positive and 3C supported move up, commodities track the market well as they should as a risk asset, commodities even fell around the area we expected the market to fall, except sharper, but then that Tuesday happened and extended the market move to the upside.

 Yields intraday, these are like a magnet for equities to the better performance intraday is a positive divergence suggesting the market revert to the mean on the upside.

Longer term since 11/16 Yields have had an overall deeply negative divergence so the probabilities for the market longer term on this move are to the downside.

 The $AUD is a great leading currency, it is leading the market intraday pretty sharply.

 As mentioned above, the market usually follows the Euro very closely and the Euro is leading the market today as well.

 High Yield Credit is a great leading indicator, you can see even small moves in the past and divergences have caused the SPX t move, today overall HY credit is negative, but...

 intraday it is improving as we move toward the close, creating a more positive outlook.

 HY Corporate Credit is also leading the market today.


As is High Yield Junk Credit, strangely almost every risk asset is leading the market today.

It will be interesting to see how that triangle resolves.