Friday, December 14, 2012

BEAV Short trade follow up

I mentioned BEAV yesterday as a short trade... There are a number of interesting longer term charts that support a short position in BEAV, but one of the features that suggested a BEAV short is very close was an ascending triangle right below long time resistance, either of which seeing a break above would likely trigger long orders and squeeze out remaining shorts as it would appear BEAV was breaking out to a new high, the triangle I showed you yesterday suggested this move was coming very soon (as in hours or a day), it appears to have come this morning on the open.

Expecting this I ended the BEAV post with this sentence, "This is why I like BEAV here, I'd prefer a 50% short position now and wait to see if we get a higher breakout to add the last 50%."

However with the way it went down, that would not have been possible or at least not likely, however this may mean that BEAV has cleared the baffles and may be ready for that move lower. All of the long term charts and short term starting at 5 min are still in line with a move down, the issue I have right now is the very short term charts-1 through 3 min are not providing a clear picture, but I wanted you to know about this so you can look and make a decision which can include being patient and waiting to see if something more concrete on the short end appears.

 Here's the 60 min chart with the ascending triangle that tells Technical Retail traders that BEAV is a long and a breakout to the upside, which is just below long term resistance as well is where they want to buy on confirmation. You might be able to make out a move on the open through and above both levels.

 Long term resistance at $48.48 and this morning's opening gap high at $48.73 takes out both levels, it does not make it easy for longs to enter unless they had a limit order in place, but it does trigger any limit orders or BTC orders.

 Here's the move on a 1 min chart, it was up there long enough to trigger any orders on the book, but not long enough for any traders who place their orders manually, we might want to wait to see if it moves there and allows them in to the trade, or you may just want to view this as the clear out that we usually see right before a trend reversal, it's hard to say because the short term charts aren't helping much. The 1 min can't be too helpful because of the many bars that have 500 shares traded or 100 or even zero, so we have to go to longer charts that don't have those gaps in trade.

 The 3 min chart is the rally first solid timeframe and as you can see it looks like there was a positive divergence late yesterday preparing for the gap this a.m. and yes, Algos can sell those shares in a minute easily, however in the yellow box, not much 3C information.

The 5 min and all the timeframes beyond that are supportive of a move down in BEAV, I guess you have to decide. I mentioned a partial or phased entry, maybe with the market seeing some strength BEAV sees some? Then there's the "It's only a fraction of a percent or a bit more, is it worth missing the trade?" Even a full short here still has minimal risk so long as you follow a risk management plan.

Any thing changes, I'll let you know.

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