Wednesday, December 5, 2012

AAPL For Dead Cat Bounce

I've had quite a few emails on this today, my answer is "NO", I don't see any high probability charts to indicate a bounce is a worthwhile trade, this is about as positive as it gets...

 1 min intraday positive, this is just enough to hold AAPL in a sideways consolidation.

 The 2 min had that initial move too, I believe to hold AAPL sideways, then it deteriorated so there's nothing past 1 min that is positive and that won't support a move.

3 min is in line.

Now, down the road a bit we do have a 30 min positive in AAPL and the thought for the last months has been AAPL falls and then the 30 min positive will lift AAPL on a bigger , longer rally.

Obviously we are no where near that yet, but if the signal holds, that's the AAPL trade that would be very interesting at this point. I think ultimately AAPL has more downside, but I wouldn't chase it here unless we had some kind of bounce, be patient, maybe we do get one, the probabilities are just saying, "Not yet".

Remember why AAPL is down, margin was doubled, that's forced selling, not an oversold move.

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