Wednesday, December 5, 2012

QQQ Update

I have to update some of the market individually instead of a regular "Market Update", as I said late yesterday, the QQQ looked weak, Financials and the SPY looked stronger for today so positions were taken or closed along those lines which include a QQQ put that is still in the money, I've decided to leave the position open, but if I were building a new position in the QQQ (short) I would prefer to use less leverage and use a 2x or 3x leveraged short ETF, I prefer SQQQ and already have that as a long equity position. Once the QQQ put is closed, any additional exposure to the Q's short will be with less leverage like SQQQ as I think the volatility in a move down may be too much to reasonably handle with puts and that amount of leverage.

Here's the Q's, they do look like they'll see an intraday move higher, but it doesn't look too serious.
 On an intraday 2 min chart it does look like the Q' will see a little more upside as there is a leading positive divergence right now, but...

 Nothing on the next timeframe, 3 min. So I'm thinking the move up doesn't have that much support and thus I'll leave the put position open.

The 15 min QQQ is where the probabilities are (and longer timeframes) and we still have a clean leading negative divergence suggesting the ultimate direction will be lower, much lower at this point.


 Here's a QQQ 60 min chart that looks even worse.

As for the long in SQQQ (for QQQ short exposure), here's the 60 min chart with a leading positive divergence, this is the exact opposite of the QQQ 60 min so we have good confirmation here.

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