Wednesday, December 19, 2012

BEAV Continues to deteriorate

I WISH I had room to add to BEAV which has been a core short position since April of this year. I try to keep good habits though even on model portfolios.

If I didn't have any exposure to BEAV (aerospace/defense products which I think will suffer under the Obama Admin.), I'd be very hard pressed not to consider at least a partial / phased in position in the area; it doesn't have to be an all or nothing proposition and in fact this is the way Wall St. enters positions, it's just not as practical for us because of transaction costs accounting for a higher percentage of the overall cost, but in 2 or 3 phases, it's usually doable. THIS IS NOT DOLLAR COST AVERAGING  which is a losing concept used by Wall Street to keep their clients not only in bad trades/investments, but to get them to even spend more on these bad trades/investments which lines Wall Street's pockets with more cash, now that's taking a lemon and making lemonade. If you make phasing in to a position part of your risk management plan before you enter the trade, it is a valuable concept and tactic, it's not the same as throwing more money in to a losing trade.

 "If" BEAV closes weaker today, it may very well put in a candle that looks like the one I drew below today on the daily chart, this would be very bearish, especially if it closed below the trendline.

 The 2 min chart deteriorating and in a bad position on a relative basis.

 3 min chart getting worse as BEAV is in a flat range.

10 min chart in a deep relative negative divergence on the breakout and a very parabolic looking price range today, these typically fail in the same spectacular fashion as they went up.



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