Wednesday, December 19, 2012

GLD Update

Occasionally GLD and even more so, SLV are extremely hard to analyze, they flip flop correlations such as one week they may represent a risk on trade, the next week a flight to safety trade, for months they represent anticipation of QE and then they seem to lose any such interest. Throw on top of that manipulation of the PM market which has been proven time  and time over, especially in SLV and margin hikes that appear out if nowhere and seem to be ordered from higher ups in the food chain and you have n asset that i very difficult to follow, it didn't use to be so.

I have an open position in GLD long, I will leave it open, but will not add to it because I really can't get a grasp of what's going on here, it feels like GLD is in transition again as to its correlation which may be true given the QE3 announcement and QE3.2 last week with Treasuries added to MBS.

 GLD daily-this is a long timeframe and further out trend

 GLD 4 hour also long timeframe and trend and looks pretty bearish for the long term

 60 min looks better, maybe GLD runs up a bit before a move to the downside? It's hard to say as the long timeframes can change if the shorter ones are strong enough.

 15 min positive as well

 10 min positive

 near term 3 min positive

For the reasons seen on the near term timeframes which should be executed first, I'll hold the GLD long open for now, but I will not add to it as these charts give me the feel that they are in the middle of some sort of transition. With QE3 MBS announced in September and QE3 Treasuries announced in December, it is very likely Gold is shifting its correlation, I just don't know where it's going yet


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