Wednesday, December 19, 2012

BEAV Follow Up Trade Idea

Monday I put out a follow up post, in this post  the two previous posts are also linked. We were looking for a head fake move above a resistance level and a bullish ascending triangle right below the resistance level. What we got was an opening gap above that quickly faded so it would have been very hard to get  position in BEAV as that gap faded so fast. In the last post linked above I said I was hoping for a more sustained break out above those two levels that offer you enough time and opportunity to take the short trade if you like it at a better price, less risk and when all the 3C signals line up, higher probabilities.

We have all of that today.

On a daily chart here are the two resistance areas (bullish ascending triangle-when I say bullish I mean according to Technical Analysis and resistance) and in yellow the gap above that hit about 40,000 shares in 5 minutes, this time it was more like 17,000 as the original accumulation of stops and limit orders were cleaned out.

 Here's an hourly chart so you get some idea of what we are dealing with.

 The trend of a 10 min chart doesn't even need any comment, the divergence is clear.

 However short term on intraday charts like this 1 min, there was a small area of accumulation before BEAV made this move.

 That stretches from 1 to 5 min chart, but again as you can see, it's not a large area and not a large divergence so they are counting on retail to chase the breakout to send it higher, but there's not enough institutional support to make this a lasting move meaning it almost certainly will fail and when it starts to, we want to be there.

Here's the 10 min chart on a close up intraday range, you can see the support isn't there, so keep BEAV on your short-short list.

No comments: