Thursday, December 20, 2012

First Signs of Distribution?

Of course I'm talking specifically about today's move out of the triangle, but there are initial signs, they are still on short timeframes like 1 min which can lead to a consolidation rather than a pullback or reversal, but these are the first signs all day and as such we need to pay attention to how they develop from here to identify what they are and what we want to do with them.

 SPY 1 min chart went from positive to in line with price to the first negative divergence of this move.


 The 2 min chart is in line with price still so the distribution has not become strong enough to carry or migrate to a longer chart, but it has to start somewhere so this needs to be watched. You can also watch the SPX vs the intraday TICK index and see if any divergences between breadth and price at new highs show up.

 ES 1 min with a positive and its first negative divergence

NASDAQ Futures 1 min as the S&P futures above, showing a bad negative divergence in to the open, you see what happened to price and now the second negative divergence of the day under way.

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