Thursday, December 20, 2012

RIMM Earnings and After hours

In the RIMM post today (and RIMM is one of my favorite long term long plays, the daily and long term charts are spectacular) I mentioned a couple of things that we have seen with earnings in the past and 3C signals, specifically this happened once to RIMM on a trade we took and AMZN, what I said was,

"I can't predict what earnings will be, I just use 3C to give you an idea of what the most likely reaction is and many times that is not the same day during after hours. I would use after hours trade if it is a favorable response to your position, but if it is not, I wouldn't judge too quickly as we have seen many times the stock move 180 degrees in the opposite direction the next day from AH after an earnings report."

RIMM did beat, but they also warned (maybe guided lower, I didn't see the whole thing yet), so if that is not expected Wall St. isn't going to act on it in After Hours where the liquidity is so thin they'd shoot themselves in the foot, they'll react to it during regular hours, which was the message above.

If you have a long position in RIMM (I do like the idea of keeping at least half and trying to add half back on a pullback), I would consider using this AH strength to maybe take some profits. 

A warning or a reduction in guidance is what earnings are really all about, not what you did, but what the Street's sentiment is toward what you will do next.



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