Tuesday, January 22, 2013

DIA- ES and NQ

This is a quick look at the DIA, just as with 3C divergences, a large and powerful divergence will almost always start on the smallest, fastest and most unimportant of charts and build from there, the same is true of most reversals, so anytime we have negative behavior in the market and we are already in an area we are expecting a reversal in, we need to pay attention to the small details more than ever.

I'm paying more attention to the DIA right now because it's looking the worst, but it's not the only one. The SPY is also still deteriorating, although it received a small dose of support on the 1 min chart only, beyond that the deterioration continues.

The QQQ I expected to see some short term strength build off the earlier lows and that has happened, but don't mistake short term strength with strength, it's more intraday or rotational than anything.

A quick proxy for the market again is the ES and NQ (S&P and NASDAQ futures).

 The same as earlier, the S&P futures are not confirming, they certainly aren't showing any positive divergences, compare and contrast to the NASDAQ futures which were showing 3C positive flows this morning and continue to do so, the move expected in the Q's has obviously started-see below.

 NASDAQ 1 min intraday futures since about midnight to the far left.

 DIA 1 min chart-and this is one reason I picked the DIA (not only does it look bad, but it has the migration process) is lelading negative intraday on the 1 min, this price spike is a lot lie walking out on a thin ledge, there's no 3C support under it to give it any strength.

 That has migrated to the 2 min chart (white arrow=9:30 today).

 migration intraday continues on the 3 min chart.

 Migration continues intraday on the 5 min chart as well as there being a relative negative to the left and a leading negative to the right when looking at the bigger picture.

 Intraday these are a couple of levels to watch out for, the 50 bar,  5 min sma. and the Trend Channel at the $136.44 area, a break below those areas changes dynamics for retail traders.

 The momo indicator (I have to show this on its own) shows the divergences in momentum, not only is there a larger divergence in to the price move here, but also intraday as well as the DIA starts a rounding shape here.

As for the other indicators, Stochastics is still embedded so that will be one thing to watch for, but MACD Histo is negative, RSI is negative and the mom at the top os as well.


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