Wednesday, February 20, 2013

About that VIX Move Yesterday

I probably didn't make a big enough deal about that VIX move yesterday in the last 1/10th of a second, by my charts as that is the smallest increment of time I have, it may have even been faster, but coming that late in the day with likely less than 1/10th of a second until the close, it wasn't to ramp the market in to the close. I noted yesterday how the VIX and the ETFs based on the VIX were holding up well in to the close.

I was sent several charts that confirmed it wasn't a bad print so there's only one thing I can think of that would have caused it, a run on stops and why run stops that late in the day unless you wanted to pick up the contracts?
 This is the run that was no longer than 1/10th of a second, the last 1/10th of the trading day, possibly even shorter, but all they have to do is move price to that level to trigger stops, it doesn't need to sit there for any amount of time.

So any positions that had stops would have seen a new VIX low going back to 2007.

I can't see any other reason for such a move.

The UVXY position opened yesterday is doing well so far, it didn't see any of that downside action and I'll keep that one open for now as a trading position (which was picked up before I had decided whether to go with the weekly SPY Puts, which look pretty darn good so far in early trade and underlying trade more importantly).

DB doesn't think today's minutes from the January meeting are going to contain anything regarding trailing off of asset purchases, but that doesn't mean they won't have something that spooks the market, it seems the F_E_D sets a tone (as Bernie has said they are trying to be transparent) and the recent speakers this week have set a negative tone for the asset purchase program.

We'll see at 2 p.m. *Remember anything F_E_D related often sees a knee jerk reaction and then a change in course, not that I'm predicting anything either way.


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