Market Update

Leading Indicators are a bit all over the place and I haven't had the time to look at currencies, but they have been trending since Feb 1 so I doubt there will be any surprises there. I think we now know definitively what the VIX "last 1/10th of a second" move to run stops yesterday was all about.

I'm going to update without charts because it's so easy, this looks like a significant break so far.

The SPY is either in line or leading negative on every intraday timeframe from 1, 2, 3, and 5 min, the 10 min has been in leading negative position for some time just waiting for price to break down to it, the 15 min is UGLY, leading negative both on a shorter intraday basis and the long term, the same is true of the 30 and 60 min. This is why I wanted to have shorts prepared, try not to trade around them and just hedge them with the short term options trades and others.

The QQQ is very similar, except the signals are close to inline with the move down, the Q's are even worse off on the long term 60 min trend. In a sense, I'd say the Q's look a little stronger, but it's almost impossible to put strong in a sentence describing them right now.

The IWM is somewhere between the SPY and QQQ, although there's 1 chart that I think sums up the IWM action the best so I'll show this 1, it's a 30 min going from in line to distribution or relative negative to recent leading negative.

Nothing goes straight up or down, but this kind of damage is not usually repaired, that would make any price strength likely a good area to short in to.

The very short term DIA 1, 2 and 3 min are kind of congested, it may be that there's a lot of price congestion in the area or maybe it tries to correct to the upside a little although I wouldn't take that trade.

At 5, 10 and 15 min there's some real damage done. The 30/60 intraday aren't horrible, but their long term positioning is leading negative so again, there's just a lot of damage everywhere.

This is why patience is so necessary and why I've been trying to point out that the upside gains of the last 3 weeks or even since the start of the year, really need to be put in to perspective.

NASDAQ and S&P 1 and 5 min futures are resolving that earlier transition to the downside, if there were some price strength to short in to I would, but for now it's about just letting the positions in place work and keep your eye on the progression, look out for any opportunities.

This is apparently why the C&D trades were nil yesterday, they had mostly all fired off already which comes at the end of a bull move.